Nitish Kumar's departure: Its impact on INDIA alliance and 2024 Lok Sabha elections

In a surprising turn of events, Nitish Kumar, the chief of Janata Dal (United), sent shockwaves through the political landscape by resigning as the Chief Minister of Bihar. Simultaneously, he announced his intentions to form a state government in collaboration with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the National Democratic Alliance (NDA). This sudden departure marked the end of his alliance with Lalu Prasad Yadav's Rashtriya Janta Dal (RJD) and had broader implications for the opposition's INDIA alliance, comprising 28 parties, just ahead of the pivotal 2024 Lok Sabha elections.

Nitish Kumar's role in the opposition's INDIA bloc

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Nitish Kumar, until recently, held a crucial position in the opposition's INDIA alliance. Having formed the Bihar government in 2022 with the RJD and other Left parties, Kumar played a key role in uniting disparate regional entities under the umbrella of the INDIA alliance. His influence extended beyond Bihar, where he successfully brought leaders from diverse regions onto a single platform. The first meeting of the INDIA alliance in Patna in June of the previous year highlighted Kumar's ability to foster collaboration among opposition parties.

Kumar's departure: The motives

Despite his past aversion to aligning with the BJP, Nitish Kumar's sudden move to join forces with the NDA raised eyebrows. Just a year earlier, in 2023, he had emphatically stated, "Mar jaana qubool hai lekin unke (BJP) saath jaana humko kabhi qubool nahin hai" ("I'd rather die than tie up with them"). The question then arises: what prompted this U-turn?

During his resignation announcement, Kumar cryptically mentioned that "not everything was all right," alluding to internal issues within the INDIA alliance. This cryptic statement speculated about discord within the alliance and raised concerns about the unity of the opposition front in the run-up to the critical 2024 Lok Sabha Elections.

Blaming the Congress: Internal fractures in the INDIA alliance

JD(U) spokesperson KC Tyagi pointed fingers at the Congress for the collapse of the INDIA alliance in Bihar. According to Tyagi, the Congress leaders prioritised strengthening their party over fostering unity within the opposition grouping. He alleged that a "caucus" within the Congress aimed to seize control of the INDIA alliance leadership, adding that Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge's name was proposed as the chairperson as part of this supposed conspiracy.

This internal power struggle, as revealed by Tyagi, sheds light on the complexities within the INDIA alliance. The decision-making process seems marred by internal conflicts, further jeopardising the alliance's coherence. The shockwaves resulting from the proposal of Kharge as the chairperson reverberated within the JD(U), which expected Nitish Kumar to be named as the convenor without any chairperson, according to JD(U) leaders.

Congress's role in INDIA alliance

Nitish Kumar's rejection of the post of INDIA alliance convenor in the previous month's meeting and the subsequent accusations by Tyagi indicate a growing discontent within the alliance. Tyagi accused a section of the Congress leadership of repeatedly "insulting" Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar. Moreover, the objection to Mallikarjun Kharge's name being proposed as INDIA alliance's prime ministerial face in a Mumbai meeting added fuel to the fire.

Delay in seat-sharing talks and strained ties with RJD

KV Tyagi further highlighted the Congress's role in the INDIA alliance's troubles by pointing out the delay in seat-sharing talks. According to him, the Congress's reluctance to expedite these discussions left the INDIA alliance without concrete plans to counter the BJP effectively. The friction extended beyond the Congress to strained ties between the JD(U) and the RJD at the local level, contributing to the turmoil within the opposition camp.

Nitish Kumar's power play within the JD(U)

Aside from external dynamics, Nitish Kumar's internal power play within the JD(U) also played a pivotal role in shaping the current scenario. Kumar's decision to take over as the JD(U) president by cutting short Lalan Singh's tenure indicated a determined effort to assert control over the organisation. Speculations about Kumar's confidant growing too close to the RJD or pursuing an independent agenda fuelled the narrative of internal power struggles within the JD(U).

Impact on the INDIA alliance and Bihar's political landscape

Nitish Kumar's exit from the INDIA alliance reverberates beyond Bihar, where the coalition faces a potential reshuffling of alliances. Bihar was a model state for the INDIA alliance, with almost all non-NDA parties rallying unitedly against the BJP. The arithmetic of the alliance, encompassing JD-U, RJD, Congress, CPI-ML, CPI, and CPI-M, made it a formidable force. Nitish Kumar's departure disrupts this arithmetic, forcing the bloc to rely once again on the RJD's 'MY' combination with sporadic support from the Congress and Left parties.

The socio-economic caste census plank

One of the significant blows dealt by Nitish Kumar's departure is to the socio-economic caste census plank of the INDIA alliance. Kumar, as the face of this plank, had conducted the caste census in Bihar and released the data. His implementation of reservation along with detailed sub-categorisation further strengthened his influence in this regard. However, with Kumar aligning with the NDA, the INDIA alliance faces challenges in retaining credibility for this plank.

Viability of the INDIA alliance questioned

Nitish Kumar's pivotal role in initiating the very first meeting of opposition parties that led to the formation of the INDIA alliance in Patna is now in question. With his sudden departure, questions arise about the viability and the very premise of the INDIA alliance. The absence of Kumar, especially during a time when other regional players like the Trinamool Congress and Aam Aadmi Party are declaring solo ventures in states such as West Bengal and Punjab, adds to the uncertainty surrounding the future of the opposition alliance.

National ramifications

The impact of Nitish Kumar's exit extends beyond Bihar, affecting the arithmetic and credibility of the INDIA alliance on a national scale. Bihar was a stronghold of the INDIA alliance, and Kumar's departure significantly alters the political landscape. Surveys predicted major gains for the INDIA alliance in Bihar, with potential shifts in seat distribution. The loss of over 20 seats for the NDA, as projected by surveys, is now in question, changing the dynamics of the national political scenario.

PM Modi's invincibility

Nitish Kumar's departure is part of a sequence of events that contribute to the growing perception of Prime Minister Modi's invincibility. Recent wins for the BJP in assembly elections and the consecration of the Ram Mandir in Ayodhya have already bolstered this narrative. Kumar's shift further adds momentum to the NDA, setting the stage for the INDIA alliance to devise substantial strategies to counter the BJP's rising influence.